With the playoffs starting tomorrow (technically today because it's after midnight), and my excitement higher than it's ever been for a post-season, I figure I need to say something to capture what I'm feeling in this moment. This has the potential to be the best postseason in quite a while. There are five serious contenders this year (Los Angeles, OKC, Chicago, Miami and Boston) and a handful of others who I might be underestimating (San Antonio, Dallas, Denver and Portland). Long story short, there are 5 first round match-ups that I'm really looking forward to, and if that doesn't bode well for the playoffs as a whole, I don't know what does.
So here's my team by team breakdown of what I expect this postseason, with predictions scattered throughout.
Eastern Conference
Chicago Bulls
They're good. Very good it seems. Derrick Rose has them running like a well-oiled machine and they've worked their way steadily and consistently to the number 1 overall seed. They have strong advantages in incredible defense inspired by a great first year coach (and probably coach of the year), a superstar who can get his own shot, and solid role players. A weakness a lack of a consistent number 2. Derrick Rose is far and away the best offensive player on the team, but who is their second option? Is it the inconsistent (if defensively solid) Luol Deng, or is it Carlos Boozer, who scores well, but has trouble against length. In order to take down the real monsters in the playoffs, they are going to need to be able to turn to one of these guys to take some of the load from Rose every night.
More concerning to me, however, is how well the Bulls are already playing. Are they already in fifth gear? As strange as it sounds to say for a team that couldn't play it's starting lineup together for much of the season, I wonder if they've hit their ceiling, at least for this year. Can they ratchet up the intensity another notch, or has the Thibs/Rose motivational combo already squeezed the best basketball out of this team. Ultimately I see them losing in Conference finals to either the Heat or the Celtics.
Miami Heat
I think I may have accidentally drunk the Kool-aid with these guys. I've disliked them ever since The Decision, but I'm starting to see them as a real threat in the east.. A lot of this has to do with the level of their competition, and the fact that Lebron and Wade can turn it on in the playoffs. It goes without saying that they are two of the best scorers in the league, and their ability to turn aggressive D into easy transition points will help them in the playoffs where so many points are so difficult to get.
Their main weakness is what it has always been: who is gonna step up after their first two. Towards the end of the season, the answer has been Bosh, but if he's matched up against a superior defender, or can't get his game going, then there is almost no one else. Miller and Haslem have been disappointments and the rest of the team feels like dead weight compared to the Big Three. I like them to bring a new level of intensity and focus to the playoffs and use their sheer athleticism to run teams off the court. I think they match up well with the 76ers, the new look Celtics and the Bulls and I see them making it all the way to the finals.
Boston Celtics
It can't be said often or loudly enough how stupid the Kendrick Perkins trade was. I don't care that Boston played so well without him, or that it is their offense, not their defense that has suffered since the trade deadline. The fact of the matter is that with a healthy Perkins, the Celtics could defend any front line in the league. This may not kill them in the eastern conference, where an active, healthy Shaq is a decent deterrent against dribble penetration, just as Perkins was. However, an active, healthy Shaq is by no means guaranteed to show up in the playoffs. Although it sounds like he will play, how much his already dwindling quickness has been impacted by his injury is a serious concern. Although I expect the Celtics offense (particularly Rondo's) to get back to form, without a solid option at center, I see the Celtics falling to Heat in round 2. If they can make it past the Heat and Bulls, to the finals, then I see the Perkins trade coming back to haunt them as the Lakers front line destroys them inside.
Orlando Magic
Game 1 against Atlanta was basically this Magic team in a nutshell. A man who is on the verge of becoming a dominant two-way player but who invite legitimate questions about his drive and attitude with dumb fouls and technicals. Surrounding this man is one of the most ineffective supporting casts in the league. Turkoglu, Arenas and Richardson are the only ones who have ever been difference makers and none of them are playing very well. Dwight Howard is asked to do everything night in and night out. I was originally very split on whether or not they could beat the Hawks, leaning slightly towards the Magic, but after seeing one game of Howard getting very little help, I'm afraid I have to admit that the hawks are the slightly less broken basketball team, even if I see neither of them winning anything beyond this series.
And now, because this article is already late, I will forgo an in-depth explanation of where and when the Knicks, Pacers, 76ers and Hawks will be bounced from the playoffs. I only have the Hawks coming out of the first round (although I could see them losing there too), and being dispatched quickly by a Bulls team that is playing much better basketball right now.
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